Download A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences by Andrew Gelman, Jeronimo Cortina PDF

By Andrew Gelman, Jeronimo Cortina

To foster a deeper figuring out of the interconnection of the social sciences, economists should still be aware of the place old facts come from, sociologists may still know the way to imagine like economists, political scientists would receive advantages from knowing how versions are proven in psychology, historians may still find out how political approaches are studied, psychologists should still comprehend sociological theories, etc. This evaluate by means of fashionable social scientists offers an available, non-technical feel of the way quantitative learn is finished within the social sciences. Upon completing this e-book, the reader must have a feeling of different types and alternative ways of considering in economics, background, sociology, political technology and psychology, which in flip they could carry again to their significant box.

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A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences

To foster a deeper realizing of the interconnection of the social sciences, economists may still be aware of the place ancient information come from, sociologists should still know the way to imagine like economists, political scientists would receive advantages from realizing how versions are demonstrated in psychology, historians should still find out how political techniques are studied, psychologists may still comprehend sociological theories, and so on.

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In fact, however, it seems more reasonable to suppose that, as a soldier in the trenches, you would do better to avoid firing: Shooting your weapon exposes you as a possible target, and the enemy soldiers might very well shoot back at the place where your shot came from (a point mentioned by S. L. A. Marshall). If you have no short-term motivation to fire, then cooperation is completely natural and requires no special explanation. This is an example of a sophisticated mathematical model being created to explain behavior The Allure and Limitations of Mathematical Modeling 25 that is perfectly natural.

We currently have no reliable data for these two quantities, and they have therefore been the subject of politically motivated and intellectually questionable manipulations so that the number that we know to be pretty close to the actual number is doubled, tripled, or further increased to arrive at a politically endorsable number. This is a case where attempts to resolve one historical problem have led to new historical debates and to new issues (for example, mortality on land before and after crossing the Atlantic) that only quantitative analysis can resolve.

Player 1 Yes cooperates? No Yes No þ5 þ10 À10 À5 Player 1 Yes cooperates? No Yes No þ5 À10 þ10 À5 This table expresses the so-called prisoner’s dilemma in a game-theoretic framework. Each of two players has the option to cooperate or not, and their payoffs are determined by the actions of both players. First, consider Player 1’s payoff matrix: He or she has no control over Player 2’s action. If Player 2 cooperates, Player 1 will do better by not cooperating (thus giving a payoff of þ10 rather than þ5).

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