Download Africa at a Turning Point?: Growth, Aid, and External Shocks by Delfin Sia Go, John Page PDF

By Delfin Sia Go, John Page

Sub-Saharan Africa (Africa) is the area s greatest improvement problem. a lot of the continent neglected 20 years of monetary development among 1975 and 1995, with the outcome that usual source of revenue in line with individual was once nearly unchanged among independence and the flip of the twenty first Century. Lagging at the back of the remainder of the constructing international in approximately each indicator of human health, it's also the continent the place, on present projections, many of the global financial institution millennium improvement targets (MDGs) are not going to be met. but, there's renewed wish in recent times. because the mid-1990s, an acceleration of financial progress in a lot of Africa has produced emerging earning and quicker human improvement. This development acceleration has raised questions and expectancies approximately Africa s improvement. Is there a turnaround in Africa s financial system? what's going to make certain even if development persists? Africa at a Turning element appears at interrelated elements of Africa's fresh monetary revival. It examines Africa's fresh development within the context of its lengthy background of progress accelerations, and collapses and seeks to reply to a number of questions - Is Africa certainly at a turning element? Have African international locations realized from previous coverage and institutional blunders? And are the commercial basics eventually pointing in the direction of extra sustainable progress? It bargains with the continued value of donor flows for Africa, addressing such matters as handling and offering higher reduction, and the background and volatility of donor flows. As crude oil costs achieve new highs, it additionally addresses the effect of commodity cost shocks on output variability in African nations; how oil exporting international locations can deal with their new oil wealth; and the prospective financial and distributional affects of upper oil costs on oil uploading nations.

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Read or Download Africa at a Turning Point?: Growth, Aid, and External Shocks (World Bank Development Essays) PDF

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Extra resources for Africa at a Turning Point?: Growth, Aid, and External Shocks (World Bank Development Essays)

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In the oil exporters, changes in oil-driven external shocks account for much of the decline in output volatility during the period 1990–2003—a decline also supported by a reduction in the variance of internal shocks in oil exporters. INTRODUCTION 7 The next two chapters look at the rising importance of oil revenue for oil-exporting countries. The recent boom in oil prices poses significant opportunities for accelerating growth and poverty reduction in Africa. In chapter 9, titled “Harnessing Oil Windfalls,” Devlin, Lewin, and Ranaweera describe fiscal approaches to managing oil windfalls.

This result may indicate that although high commodity prices trigger growth, they may not be the main factor behind medium-term growth spells in Africa. Economic Management Macroeconomic management appears to be an important factor in both good times and bad times. Decelerations are accompanied by high inflation; one recent example is Zimbabwe. There is a positive correlation between inflation and the frequency of growth decelerations. Public debt is higher during both acceleration and deceleration episodes than it is during normal times, and government consumption falls during both accelerations and decelerations.

Growth Diagnostics: What Is Different since 1995? How different is the recent experience in the context of Africa’s history of frequent growth accelerations and collapses? This section examines the issue on the basis of findings from a series of growth diagnostics and statistical tests conducted by Arbache and Page using long time-series and most recent purchasing power parity data for 45 African countries. In the next chapter, one of those studies is used to examine the characteristics and patterns of long-term growth in sub-Saharan Africa for cross-country income structure, convergence, country level, growth persistence, and evidence for the formation of country groups or clubs.

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